Arizona’s Problem – It Isn’t Going Away

We’ve been watching Arizona closely. Initially, it looked like the backlash to SB 1070 was dissippating. In fact, we even said so. However, just as Arizona’s sentiment was starting to recover, HB 2281 was passed making several changes to the state’s educational system that detractors say, are prejudicial and ban ethnic studies. The effect? A double dip. Sure enough, Arizona’s perception reversed its comeback and dropped into negative territory.

However, that’s not what is most concerning. What is most concerning that Arizona is still persistently in negative territory and it we are now entering the 6th week since the passage of SB 1070 and the 4th week after HB 2281. We even have the biggest ongoing environmental crisis in a generation going on in the Gulf and nothing beats a backlash than another crisis taking the spotlight. Given all of that, the backlash is still present. To such an extent that I wouldn’t call it a backlash anymore. It is more of a persistent PR crisis for Arizona and something that might turn into a stigma. Internally at Alchemy our stance was that they needed to go into the Memorial Day weekend in positive territory. Didn’t happen. Even more worrisome is that the negative chatter volumes haven’t dissipated that much.

Note the two humps. Each correspond with polls showing that the majority of American’s support Arizona’s recent laws. However, in both instances, the bounce only lasted for two days.

Again, look at the chatter levels last week – the intro week to a 3 day weekend. While lower than the previous week they aren’t dissipating as America’s attention is turned to the Gulf Coast. This is an ominous sign for Arizona. I can’t imagine the folks at the Arizona Department of Tourism can be pleased.

Arizona Backlash Dissipating

The other week we showed you how visual the backlash against the state of Arizona has been over AZ 1070 – Immigration Reform. We’ve been keeping an eye on Arizona and not only has the volume of the backlash declined in recent days, but so has the level of average negative sentiment directed at Arizona. The following is the average sentiment expressed about Arizona in both Media and User Generated Content from April 1 through yesterday (May 11th). This chart shows the weekly average:

Arizona - Weekly Composite Sentiment

The rebound is visible with last week being the bottom of the trough. However, this is only part of the story. If you take a closer look using a 3 day moving average of sentiment, you can see that Arizona has actually crossed into positive territory yesterday.

Arizona Composite Sentiment - 3 Day Moving Average

It should be noted that this sentiment derived from all things Arizona – travel, schools, weather, sports teams, economy, immigration, politics – you name it. Any discussion about Arizona. As you can see prior to the passage of 1070, Arizona usually trends in the +1 to +2 range in Composite Sentiment (and the +0.2 – +0.4 range in raw sentiment). Thus, Arizona is not out of the woods yet and the 1070 issue is still effecting perception – but not as much as it was.

Arizona Backlash Visualized

Over the course of the past two weeks I am sure you have been reading about the recently passed (and signed) state legislation in Arizona compelling law enforcement personnel to validate the citizenship of people suspected of being in the state illegally. I am sure you also heard about the backlash coming from various communities to this legislation. Is it real? Here’s what that backlash looks like.

Below is a 2 month time series for the sentiment being expressed for Arizona. It should be noted that this is not strictly political sentiment, but rather the sum total of sentiment being expressed for the state of Arizona in all contexts. It should also be noted that this data is derived from both media and User Generated Content/Social Media sources.