Arizona’s Problem – It Isn’t Going Away

We’ve been watching Arizona closely. Initially, it looked like the backlash to SB 1070 was dissippating. In fact, we even said so. However, just as Arizona’s sentiment was starting to recover, HB 2281 was passed making several changes to the state’s educational system that detractors say, are prejudicial and ban ethnic studies. The effect? A double dip. Sure enough, Arizona’s perception reversed its comeback and dropped into negative territory.

However, that’s not what is most concerning. What is most concerning that Arizona is still persistently in negative territory and it we are now entering the 6th week since the passage of SB 1070 and the 4th week after HB 2281. We even have the biggest ongoing environmental crisis in a generation going on in the Gulf and nothing beats a backlash than another crisis taking the spotlight. Given all of that, the backlash is still present. To such an extent that I wouldn’t call it a backlash anymore. It is more of a persistent PR crisis for Arizona and something that might turn into a stigma. Internally at Alchemy our stance was that they needed to go into the Memorial Day weekend in positive territory. Didn’t happen. Even more worrisome is that the negative chatter volumes haven’t dissipated that much.

Note the two humps. Each correspond with polls showing that the majority of American’s support Arizona’s recent laws. However, in both instances, the bounce only lasted for two days.

Again, look at the chatter levels last week – the intro week to a 3 day weekend. While lower than the previous week they aren’t dissipating as America’s attention is turned to the Gulf Coast. This is an ominous sign for Arizona. I can’t imagine the folks at the Arizona Department of Tourism can be pleased.

Arizona Backlash Dissipating

The other week we showed you how visual the backlash against the state of Arizona has been over AZ 1070 – Immigration Reform. We’ve been keeping an eye on Arizona and not only has the volume of the backlash declined in recent days, but so has the level of average negative sentiment directed at Arizona. The following is the average sentiment expressed about Arizona in both Media and User Generated Content from April 1 through yesterday (May 11th). This chart shows the weekly average:

Arizona - Weekly Composite Sentiment

The rebound is visible with last week being the bottom of the trough. However, this is only part of the story. If you take a closer look using a 3 day moving average of sentiment, you can see that Arizona has actually crossed into positive territory yesterday.

Arizona Composite Sentiment - 3 Day Moving Average

It should be noted that this sentiment derived from all things Arizona – travel, schools, weather, sports teams, economy, immigration, politics – you name it. Any discussion about Arizona. As you can see prior to the passage of 1070, Arizona usually trends in the +1 to +2 range in Composite Sentiment (and the +0.2 – +0.4 range in raw sentiment). Thus, Arizona is not out of the woods yet and the 1070 issue is still effecting perception – but not as much as it was.

Arizona Backlash Visualized

Over the course of the past two weeks I am sure you have been reading about the recently passed (and signed) state legislation in Arizona compelling law enforcement personnel to validate the citizenship of people suspected of being in the state illegally. I am sure you also heard about the backlash coming from various communities to this legislation. Is it real? Here’s what that backlash looks like.

Below is a 2 month time series for the sentiment being expressed for Arizona. It should be noted that this is not strictly political sentiment, but rather the sum total of sentiment being expressed for the state of Arizona in all contexts. It should also be noted that this data is derived from both media and User Generated Content/Social Media sources.

Rasmussen Reports and Maroon Alchemy Unveil Partnership

March 23, 2010 – Asbury Park, NJ – Rasmussen Reports, a media organization specializing in public opinion polling information, and Maroon Alchemy, LLC, a Colorado digital firm, announce the launch of an innovative new online feature, the Media Meter on www.rasmussenreports.com, America’s most trafficked public opinion polling site. The Media Meter enables site visitors to track public sentiment expressed in both media and user-generated Internet outlets.  Readers will be able to follow the ups and downs of press coverage for political candidates and other high-profile public figures along with special interest groups, even sports teams, in conjunction with Rasmussen’s polling.
“We are always looking for new ways to inform and engage our readers,” said Scott Rasmussen, President of Rasmussen Reports.  “The Media Meter initiative with Maroon Alchemy provides a unique perspective on how the media is covering the people and institutions in the public eye and adds another dimension to the polling information we provide.”

“Maroon Alchemy acts as a massive listening platform to measure how the public feels about people, products and brands, as expressed in media and user-generated content,” adds Christopher Tippie, founder of Maroon Alchemy, LLC. “The Media Meter, coupled with Rasmussen’s extensive polling, delivers unparalleled insight into the opinions of the public about a full gamut of topics, from politics to sports.  It’s exciting to watch the data become part of Rasmussen’s news cycle.” Read more »

Sarah on the Rise

What would MaroonAlchemy.com be without another take on Sarah Palin and her new book, Going Rogue? Actually, let’s just look at the cold hard facts and see how Gov. Palin’s numbers have fared over the course of the last 7 months.

As you can see, it was a difficult summer for Gov. Palin’s sentiment numbers – resignation from her Governorship, disputes with David Letterman and a relatively public  disagreement with GOP leadership regarding speaking roles. That being said, everything changed for her with the announcement of her book deal and subsequent book release, tour, and media blitz. She hasn’t dropped below 0 for any significant length of time since September 13th. Lock into 9/13/09 (blue arrow) and look at the number of  observations above 0 pre 9/13 and the number of observations below 0 post 9/13. I’ve included a polynomial trend line (order 5) to illustrate my point. Her sentiment numbers are certainly on the rise and her velocity (volume) numbers over the last week and a half are on par with President Obama. She is still very much relevant (understatement) in the public eye and appears to be gaining momentum.

I’m working on a polarity measurement. To be honest, I am not sure what the results are going to be. You would think that her polarity score would be on the rise but remember, most of the controversial disclosures in Going Rogue is directed a McCain campaign staff, most notably Steve Schmidt. I wouldn’t be surprised to see polarity scores indicate that she is less polarizing now than she was four months ago. Stay tuned.

NJ Gov – Why Jon Corzine Lost

The real title to this post should be:  Why Jon Corzine Will Lose Lost

See, we actually made that prediction on October 27th. As evidenced by:

Want to know why? Let’s take a look at the sentiment number shall we?

That’s Jon Corzine in yellow and Chris Cristie in green. As you can see, Corzine actually does quite well with sentiment.

But wait you say, how can you call a race on the 27th for the guy who just took a big hit on sentiment???

Read more »