NJ Gov – Why Jon Corzine Lost
The real title to this post should be: Why Jon Corzine Will Lose Lost
See, we actually made that prediction on October 27th. As evidenced by:
Want to know why? Let’s take a look at the sentiment number shall we?
That’s Jon Corzine in yellow and Chris Cristie in green. As you can see, Corzine actually does quite well with sentiment.
But wait you say, how can you call a race on the 27th for the guy who just took a big hit on sentiment???
I’ll tell you why – velocity. I was watching this race for about two months and day in day out, Christie garnered at least twice if not three times as many sentiment observations as Corzine on a consistent basis. Heck, even the third party candidate, Chris Daggett was outpacing Corzine 2:1. In the most simple of terms: they don’t care about you.
When you are the major party incumbent candidate and your main rival is outpacing your velocity by 3:1 and the third party guy is beating you 2:1, it doesn’t matter what your sentiment is, you’re gonna lose. Low velocity means low base voter enthusiasm which means low base voter turnout. It is as simple as that.
NOTE: by the way, for those of your zeroing in on the rest of my Facebook update, yes, I have some very cool numbers on the Orton v. Cutler saga.
Tags: Chris Christie, Jon Corzine, NJ
